The more rabid elements in the country have echoed the Al Qaeda warning against the military regime which is alleged to be ‘destroying’ the Islamic character of Pakistan. ‘Liberals’ have alleged that the mosque crackdown was a diversionary tactic to neutralise the fallout after the removal of the chief justice of the Supreme Court from his post. Many commentators have said that the ‘decisive’ action against the mosque, patronised by the government and the shadowy ISI, came only because some Chinese in the Pakistani capital were harassed.

A senior leader of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal alliance of religious parties that was till the other day a firm ally of the military rulers, Liaqat Baloch, was quoted as saying that ‘the bloodshed at Lal Masjid will lead to an Islamic revolution in Pakistan’, which is to say that the mullahs will fight tooth and nail any attempt to convert Pakistan into a nation of ‘enlightened moderation’.

The US administration and US intelligence agencies agree that the leading lights of Al Qaeda are hiding in Pakistan because of extensive public support they get there. The head of CIA’s intelligence directorate, John Kringen, told the US House of Representatives Armed Services Commission: ‘They (Al Qaeda) seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven in the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan. We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications.’ This sober assessment has come six years after Musharraf raised the slogan of ‘enlightened moderation.’ It clearly spells out the path on which Pakistan is moving.

Musharraf may conduct a few more Lal Masjid type operations to keep his ratings in Washington high. But chances are that Pakistan will see the extremists unleashing on its soil the kind of low intensity war they had launched against India and Afghanistan at the behest of the government. It may move towards the Punjabi heartland, which contrary to what the Pakistani spin doctors have been saying, is not exactly infested with ‘moderate’ elements.

The headquarters of most of the extremist parties and their training camps are located in Punjab—or PoK. Pakistan has once again played the farce of ‘detaining’ one of the leaders of these religious extremists who had raised an outfit solely to create mayhem in India. As in the past he will find no obstructions in carrying out his ‘business’, whether in or out of ‘detention’.

Gen Pervez Musharraf, was his usual boasting self when he said in a televised address that he would rid Pakistan of the two ills of militancy and religious extremism. After all he has said this a thousand times since he did a sudden U-turn to escape US wrath in the wake of the 9/11 attacks six years ago. Even a cursory assessment of events in his country since then will conclusively prove that Pakistan has, if anything moved closer to embracing the twin ills he had denounced in his address.

Despite their public protestations about militancy and extremism in NWFP belt, the Americans must be blamed for deliberately keeping their eyes shut as Pakistan continued to toy with extremism even after the Afghanistan war against the Soviets had ended.

The US Congress has just heard that Washington has been coughing up nearly $2 billion a year to Pakistan for its role (?) in the fight against terror. The aid from Washington has been going up but the scourge of militancy and extremism has not gone down in Pakistan. And, pray, where does all that money goes? To purchase more and more arms for use against India and the US says it is fine because it fits into its policy of ‘balance of power’ in south Asia.

Pakistan watchers have said that the Lal Masjid crackdown was going to decide the future of Musharraf as also the future direction the country takes. For Musharraf it is simply a question of survival in the dual role he has become so enamoured of: the head of the country as well as the army chief.

The media in Pakistan has been building up opinion in favour of Musharraf’s ‘tough’ stand against the radicals, as symbolised by the Lal Masjid attack by his army. The leader of the bigger of the two principal opposition parties, Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan People’s Party, has shed her ambiguity and has signalled her willingness to move to the Musharraf camp. She stayed away from a conclave of Pakistani opposition parties held in London. This prompted many of the opposition leaders to suspect that she was about to clinch a ‘deal’ with Musharraf.

For Musharraf an alliance with Bhutto may be crucial before the country goes to the polls to elect a new national assembly. With the largest opposition party on his side, Musharraf will find rigging elections less troublesome. His immediate and more pressing goal is to retain power as both the head of the state and the all-powerful army, not finishing extremists. Bhutto’s concern, on the other hand, is to get a stake in the power structure, which is possible only after she makes peace with the General. Washington is ready to bless a union between the crafty General and the canny Bhutto.

Till very recently, Musharraf’s main support in the national assembly came from the group of assorted religious parties, which admire outfits like Al Qaeda and its leaders. Their chief gain in backing Musharraf has seen a significant rise in the share of votes polled by them in the national assembly elections. The religious parties of Pakistan do not believe in the ‘enlightened moderation’ slogan.

The apparent falling out between Musharraf and the religious caucus of Pakistan need not be taken as a decisive shift by Musharraf against religious extremists who have been so handy for successive regimes in implementing the state policy of exporting terrorism into India (and now Afghanistan too). Most people tend to overlook the fact that Pakistan, whether ruled by Musharraf or anyone else, will not give up the country’s inherent anti-India policy. The Pakistanis have been tacitly backing an Islamic Revolution for many years.

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