The Real Agenda
Dr. Subodh
AtalToday, Indian Deputy PM
L. K. Advani dared Pakistan to a fourth war. He was clearly playing
electoral politics. The statement was made as part of the opening speech
in the election campaign in Gujarat state in India. On the face of it,
the statement is crass politics. Despite 13 years of terrorist attacks
on India, Pakistan knows that it faces no consequences, as long as it
continues to send terrorists into India. Despite a lot of bluster and
deployment of troops near the border, India has not fired a single
warning shot. Terrorists camps continue to flourish in Pakistan, which
has become Al Qaeda's new command center, with US again turning a blind
eye as it did in the years leading up to September 11, 2001.
India's state elections in Jammu and Kashmir were marked by nearly a
thousand killings in Pakistan-sponsored terrorist violence. Terrorism
has spread across to many other states of India, with Pakistan's ISI
facilitating attacks on Hindu temples and unsuspecting devotees. In
Gujarat, the burning down of a train car full of returning Hindu
devotees by Muslims led to weeks of rioting in March this year. This was
followed by the suicide attack on Akshardham temple in Gujarat, in which
dozens were killed. In May and November this year, Jammu's historic
temple has been the target of suicide attacks. Pakistani terrorists have
also attacked New Delhi's Parliament and Srinagar's Assembly buildings
last year.
India's response has wavered between acting like an ostrich, hoping that
the problem will go away, to making threats that Pakistan knows it won't
carry out. India believes that if it can hold a few successful elections
in Jammu and Kashmir over the next few years, the process of democracy
will eventually overcome Pakistan's export of terror and fundamentalism.
The last two election cycles have proven otherwise. Pakistan has
carefully calibrated the number of terrorists it needs to infiltrate and
thus overcome attrition and continue a sustained level of terrorism in
Kashmir. But the real Pakistani agenda is revealed by its terrorist
attacks on Hindu temples and symbols of Indian democracy over the last
several years. Knowing that the Indian government will not respond,
these attacks are designed to slowly bring Hindu frustrations to a boil.
A BBC reality show recently tried to project the consequences of a
future Indo-Pak confrontation after a leading Indian figure is
assassinated. What that show missed is a completely different, and more
probable scenario, one that Pakistan is likely to be preparing for. Let
us say after a year or two more of frequent attacks on temples and
landmarks, Pakistani terrorists succeed in assassinating a top Indian
official. Pent up Hindu anger will boil over, much as it did in 1984
after Sikhs assassinated Indira Gandhi.
Riots will result, with Hindus going after Muslims, and pitched street
battles happening all across India. The government, in shock, much as it
was in Gujarat earlier this year, will be slow to respond, and civil war
will break out. Sections of the Indian military, frustrated by the past
year's border deployment without action, could revolt and refuse to
attack Hindus. Muslim leaders will cry foul and ask the US and the UN to
intervene, claiming genocide and demanding separate homelands within
India to protect their kind. With US forces nearby in Pakistan, Central
Asia and the Indian Ocean, India will have few options. The breakup of
India, long dreamed of by Pakistanis, will be near at hand.
This is Pakistan's real agenda, and Indian inaction for the last several
years in the face of increasing and blatant attacks, is playing into the
hands of that agenda. India can act now, by using a combination of
covert action and limited, lightning strikes across the LOC, forcing the
US to turn its restraint mantra towards Pakistan. Or it can do the
ostrich act, waiting for the inevitable which might come within the next
decade or two, at the latest. |
