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The New Peace
Plan
Dr. Subodh Atal
Vajpayee surprised South Asians, and perhaps himself, by talking about peace
days after the latest massacre of Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir by Pakistani
terrorists. Many in South Asia, as well as the "international community", jumped
on the bandwagon. Pakistanis from Musharraf down were exhilarated. They were
doubtless expecting some strong words from
India, instead they got the most recent version of Vajpayee's "hand of
friendship".
Was this a planned strategy? If it was, it certainly was kept under covers until
the last moment. Indian cabinet members were talking about putting Pakistan in
the same pre-emptive dock that Iraq had landed in recently. Intelligence reports
and the ground situation do not offer any evidence of Pakistan finally shaking
off its terrorist mantle, before or
after the hand of friendship move. If the strategy was pre-planned, it has
already been a failure, unless we can consider the platitudes from the
"international community", or a few potential cricket matches as the measure of
success.
The other possibility is that the peace plan was a spur of the moment decision
by a Prime Minister who is unable to make the tough decisions about making
Pakistan pay for its misdeeds. This would mean that Vajpayee is undependable as
the leader of a nation of 1 billion people under grave terrorist and nuclear
threat. Perhaps the BJP inching towards giving more prominence to L. K. Advani
prior to upcoming elections is a reflection of this reality.
Given the current realities, the best outcome may indeed consist of Advani
taking over the party and the government after the elections, assuming BJP comes
back to power at the center, and seeing Vajpayee off to a comfortable retirement
where he can spend more time on what he seems to be best at: writing poetry.
History is replete with instances of misguided
leaders believing they were statesmen and entering into parleys and talks with
intractable and cunning enemies. Woodrow Wilson imagined that the United States
could maintain a state of 'armed neutrality' even as German submarines and
U-boats kept sinking one American ship after the other in the Atlantic ocean.
Wilson took too long to realize that his 'peace with honor' was a chimera when
the opponent in question was a dishonorable and militaristic Germany. The US
entered World War 1 at the fag end of the conflict in 1917, by which time the
terrible human toll had mounted to humongous proportions. Just to decades later,
Neville Chamberlain regurgitated the 'peace with honor' formula with Hitler and
made England and the rest of the world pay a heavy price during the early years
of World War II. Vapayee obviously falls into the category of vain opportunists
and escapists like Wilson and Chamberlain. His dishonorable Lahore Accord with a
double-meaning Nawaz Sharif and legitimization of General Musharraf's dictatorship at
Agra have backfired like boomerangs. As credible intelligence, both foreign and
Indian, indicate, this latest 'peace offensive' is already doomed to failure and
ignominy because the basic power structures in Pakistan which threw the Frisbee
back at Vajpayee twice are very much present this time too. The basic terror
structures that have mutilated Kashmir from across the border are present this
time too. The basic naiveté of Vajpayee is, of course, present this time too.
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