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Volume 3, No. 8 - January 2004

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Kashmir: Pakistan Explores a Political End-Game
Praveen Swami
Special Correspondent, Frontline

For years, Pakistan hasn't needed a political end-game on Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Its state-run jihad, most military and intelligence analysts in Pakistan assumed, would eventually wear India down and force it to make significant territorial concessions. Now, however, Pakistan has been pushed into reining back the jihad on which its entire strategy in J&K was founded. This winter has been the most peaceful in years - and Pakistan is now discovering that it needs the kind of legitimacy commanded by politicians, not the Kalashnikov. Using the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin (HM) as its sheep dog, Pakistan is attempting to corral a profoundly unruly flock. The lambs, apparently, have grown both spines and brains - and until the dog actually demonstrates the ability to bite, seem unlikely to fall in line.

At least some elements of Pakistan's new political strategy can now be discerned. In the build-up to the ongoing South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit in Islamabad, a three-pronged effort was made to deny India political space in J&K. First, Pakistan brought intense pressure to bear on the Jamaat-e-Islami to back hardline Islamist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani, who split the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (
APHC) last year to set up a parallel secessionist organisation. Second, its intelligence services sought to persuade the centrist APHC to back out of dialogue with India, which many observers believe will commence in the coming weeks. Finally, efforts were made to recruit the services of secessionist politicians outside the APHC fold, notably Shabbir Shah, to strengthen the rejectionist APHC faction.

None of these enterprises have met with any success. In early December 2003, Ashraf Sehrai, the Jamaat-e-Islami's Naib Amir, or deputy chief, launched a new initiative to secure the organisation's backing for Geelani. Sehrai plainly had Pakistan's backing. On November 13, 2003, speaking at a dinner hosted by Pakistan's High Commissioner to New Delhi, Aziz Ahmad Khan, Pakistani Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmad said that his country recognised "only the Hurriyat led by Geelani and no one else." "After all," he continued, "Geelani's group has been recognised by the Organisation of the Islamic Conference." The leaders of the centrist APHC, he said somewhat cryptically, were simply "Kashmiri leaders." Soon afterwards, Ghulam Rasool Dar, a member of the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin's command council, better known by his nom de guerre Riaz Rasool, visited top Jamaat-e-Islami leaders with a message from the organisation's supreme commander, Mohammad Yusuf Shah @ Syed Salahuddin.

Sehrai's efforts to get Jamaat-e-Islami backing for the rejectionist APHC met with a sharp rebuke. The Naib Amir's declaration of support for Geelani led to a public put-down from his organisation. Zahid Ali, the Jamaat-e-Islami's spokesperson, let it be known that Sehrai did not have the party's backing, and was "not in favour of toeing somebody's line." Ali went on to charge Sehrai with failing to promote the Jamaat-e-Islami's interests. Soon after, on December 27, 2003, Syed Nazir Ahmad Kashani, the Amir-e-Jamaat, or Jamaat-e-Islami supreme chief, used his executive powers to sack Sehrai. This, however, provoked a sharp response from Geelani backers within the APHC, and on December 29, Kashani was compelled to summon a meeting of the Jamaat-e-Islami's Markazi Majlis-e-Shoora, or central council, its highest decision-making body.

On January 1, the Jamaat-e-Islami announced its final position on the APHC. The Jamaat-e-Islami made clear it did not support Maulvi Abbas Ansari, the Shia cleric who heads the centrist faction of the APHC. Ali noted, in particular, that the "manner in which Ansari had been elected chairman was unacceptable to us." This was of a piece with several past Jamaat-e-Islami pronouncements on the centrist APHC, many of whose members detest Ansari simply because of his Shia religious affiliations. To placate these hardliners, Kashani part-reinstated Sehrai as the head of the Jamaat-e-Islami's political wing. At the same time, however, the Markazi Majlis-e-Shoora made clear it would not back Geelani "for the time being," and called for either the implementation of United Nations resolutions on J&K, or a three-way dialogue between India, Pakistan and representatives of the State's people. Finally, the Jamaat-e-Islami committed itself to continue its "democratic and constitutional struggle" - a signal indication of its willingness to operate within the four corners of the Indian political system.

If this would have done little to cheer Inter-Services Intelligence strategists in Islamabad, their efforts to bring the centrists themselves in line did little better. Like the Jamaat-e-Islami moderates, key centrists, notably Srinagar religious leader Mirwaiz Mohammad Farooq, are believed to have been 'leaned on' by the Hizb-ul-Mujaheddin. Members of Pakistan-based Shia organisations affiliated to Ansari are also believed to have been subjected to considerable arm-twisting. If the intention of the enterprise was indeed to sabotage the planned dialogue with India, it failed. A draft invitation for the Hurriyat centrists to go to New Delhi, source say, has been prepared, and should be issued in coming weeks. The centrists are likely to accept the invitation, a brief missive that contains no pre-defined terms of reference or conditions for the talks. "No one," Indian intelligence sources told this writer, "expects rapid results; the idea is to start talking, and let things take their time."

Finally, efforts by Islamabad to get Geelani the backing of minor secessionist figures have also gone nowhere. Shabbir Shah was asked to mediate a compromise between both APHC factions, which would give Geelani greater leverage. Sources indicate that Shah dithered for several weeks, pointing to the fact that the Kashmir Bar Association (KBA) was attempting to secure a rapprochement. The dithering served its purpose, since the KBA's efforts led to nothing, and Shah managed to keep out of the imbroglio. Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (
JKLF) leader Yasin Malik, for his part, has kept a studied distance from the centrists, but has stopped short of announcing support for Geelani. As things stand, Geelani has the support of several minor Islamist leaders, all of whom would have trouble winning municipality elections, let alone have a credible chance of building a valley-wide mass base.

What does all this point to? The fact is that Pakistan's sheep-dogs have, for a variety of reasons, been muzzled. Jihadi ranks within J&K have been depleted by ongoing Indian military operations, and a sharp reduction in cross-border infiltration has meant that there has been no replenishment. Come this spring, Pakistan will have to decide whether it wants to let go its jihad, or once again remove the muzzles. That decision will, most certainly, shape the course of political life in J&K over the months and years to come.

Courtesy: South Asia Terrorism Portal


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