I am not talking about the deal that was apparently struck between Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad on January 5^th 2004. I am still trying to figure out what that "deal" was all about. All I understood was Vajpayee and Musharraf met, shook hands and agreed to talk. What was the "deal"? In my opinion, we can call anything a successful "deal" only when the victims of ethnic cleansing in Kashmir have been given complete justice and the terrorists that perpetrated that ethnic cleansing are brought to complete justice. Anything less than that is just a façade.

Anyway, let us come back to the "deal" I was actually referring to. This "deal" got struck over last few days between Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf and American President George Bush.

The players in this deal are Pervez Musharraf, George Bush, Pakistani Nuclear Scientist and Proliferator Abdul Qadeer Khan and Osama bin Laden.

First, let us first take a look at the situations these players are in and what they really need.

Pervez Musharraf: He is stuck between rock and a hard place. On one side, he has fundamentalist Islamists to deal with and on another side he has international community looking hard at him. While he is dealing with these two forces, he himself wants to continue to rule Pakistan at any cost. Fundamentalist religious forces in Pakistan want him to go slow on Taliban and Al-Qaeda forces. International community wants to see him deliver on umpteen promises he has made since his turnaround on September 13^th 2001. They want him to stand up for human rights and sincerely fight the war on terror. And the latest revelations of nuclear proliferation by Musharraf's Chief of Pakistani Nuclear Program Abdul Qadeer Khan are the final nail in the coffin. Now nobody wants to be in such a situation where one has to cater to such conflicting expectations. But Musharraf being Musharraf is definitely going to use this situation to his advantage and make lemonade out of a lemon.

George Bush: Well, he has his own problems. 9/11 and his response to Al-Qaeda gave him the required boost and surge in domestic polls. That boost suddenly made him dream about the second term Presidency. And what better way to get to second term than a War President. So he seized the opportunity and went for war on terror. Nothing wrong with that. That was the perfectly right decision in October of 2001. He went after Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and while he was still in the middle of that war, his neo-conservative friends had different plans. Pentagon chiefs were working on another war plan. And that was to get rid of Saddam Hussein from Iraq. Hello? What about Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden? No. No. "We have seen the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and we got to get rid of Saddam." That was the only line Pentagon, Bush and Powell knew and wanted to recite. There was no way one could derail Pentagon's plans. And thus Afghanistan got the short end of the stick and focus changed from there to Iraq. Iraq war started, Saddam was kicked out and finally caught in a hole, Bush donned an air force fighter suit and went on to declare "Mission Accomplished". And nothing can be farther from the truth. Al-Qaeda is still operating globally. Taliban is resurfacing in Afghanistan and WMDs are still no where to be found. CIA weapons inspector David Kay's report is a big blow to Bush administration's claim of WMDs in Iraq. Americans are quickly losing faith in Bush's capabilities to turn around economy and secure a victory in war on terror. Latest revelations about how Bush and his coterie were hell bent upon getting rid of Saddam Hussein from January 20^th 2001 itself are not giving any relief to Bush either. Losing war on terror, downward spiraling economy and unfavorable polls are the key characteristics of the situation Bush is in.

In less than nine months, Bush is facing the re-election and the circumstances are not anywhere close to favorable. Americans want jobs, security, freedom to fly without taking off their shoes at airports and they don't want to pay more than $1 per gallon for gasoline. If Bush can provide all that, he can breeze through the elections and stay put in the White House for another four years. But if he can't, then he needs something else to ride on. And that is where capturing Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar would be beneficial to his poll numbers.

Abdul Qadeer Khan: He is the Father of the Islamic Bomb. And he got caught while he was trying to produce more Islamic bombs and make millions for himself and his mentors and friends. The tragic part of this story for him is that it was one of his own Islamic brothers who turned him in. Libya and Iran, after coming to grips with the fact that Saddam Hussein was extracted out of a hole, readily agreed to cooperate with International Atomic Energy Agency folks. They have provided preponderance of evidences that all points to this father of Islamic Bomb. So he is in a bind. He wants to live, enjoy his millions and at the same time have no jail time. And the sad part is that he can have all that. The trump card he has up his sleeve is the fact that he was not alone in this game of nuclear proliferation. He and his mentors (ISI Chiefs, Pakistani Heads of State, Army Chiefs et al) are all neck-deep in this criminal activity. He knows it, his mentors know it, CIA knows it, Pentagon knows it, US State department knows it and Bush White House knows it.

Osama bin Laden: We don't need to go into the details of his situation. In short, he is out of Afghanistan and has US$ 25 Million bounty on his head. He is enjoying his time in the company of fundamental religious parties that control the tribal areas alongside the Afghan border in Pakistan. His goal is to continue to elude American forces and continue to incite jehad against infidels. And he has been pretty successful at that.

So in summary:

• Bush wants to stay in the White House for second term;
• Bush wants Osama and Mullah Omar to help his domestic polls;
• Musharraf wants to keep his fundamentalist Islamists happy and at bay;
• Musharraf wants to continue to rule Pakistan;
• Musharraf wants a pass on this big nuclear proliferation deal;
• Musharraf wants another set of billions of US dollars for his services and
• Abdul Qadeer Khan wants to live, enjoy his millions and have no jail time.

So, what can they do to have their cake and eat it too?

Since September 13^th 2001, Musharraf has been playing a devilish double game of managing radical Islamists by offering them under-cover deals and at the same time managing Powell-Bush by offering them empty promises. Going purely by the record, he has been very successful in managing both. He was successful in managing the elections by giving legitimate control of two major provinces on Afghan border to radical Islamists. If you recall, the buzz during the fall of 2001 and spring of 2002 was that fundamentalist Islamists are no threat to Pakistani government. Musharraf and his cronies used to justify that claim by quoting the past election results in which these fundamental religious Islamic parties never managed to get more than 5% votes. But suddenly in the ISI-managed elections, these very parties managed to win the elections and control in two major provinces. Surprised? I am not. This was a well-managed and staged event. This was Musharraf's way of handing over the most troublesome areas to these fundamentalist religious parties so that he does not have to own the responsibility of harboring Osama and Mullah Omar in those tribal areas. You do know that these two terrorist fugitives are hiding in those regions? Don't you?

With Iraq in mess, Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar still at large, Bush needs Musharraf now more than he ever needed him. And Musharraf knows it. And Abdul Qadeer Khan knows it as well.

So it becomes a game of "I scratch your back, you scratch my back".

To get elected for second term, Bush is ready to make any trade at this point in his presidency. He is ready to look the other side while Musharraf deals with the latest nuclear proliferation fiasco.

Few days' back, Abdul Qadeer Khan publicly accused former Pakistani army chiefs General Karamat, General Beig and General Musharaf as his partners-in-crime. That was his strategy to make his hand stronger in final negotiations. Then suddenly within 24 hours, Khan met Musharraf for final negotiations and as part of the deal, he retracted his previous accusations. He took full responsibility for the crime, relieved Musharraf of the pressure and in return got his own minutes on Pakistani National television to address the nation. A nuclear proliferator and thus an international criminal gets to go on government controlled Pakistani television to address the nation. What a joke? Only in Pakistan can that happen.

Adbul Qadeer Khan's public statement and request for apology was more for Bush and Powell's consumption than for Pakistani public. Let us not forget the fact that Pakistani public does not even consider him as a criminal. They love him as a national hero. So they didn't need an apology from him. He didn't need clemency from them. He needed the clemency from Bush. And Bush needs Osama. And that is where Musharraf comes into play. He plays the "Khan is a national hero in Pakistani public's mind" card with Bush and Powell. And thus negotiates his clemency. And in return promises delivery of Mullah Omar in spring of 2004 and Osama bin Laden in fall of 2004, just in time for presidential elections.

In the end, Musharraf survives; Khan continues to live off his millions he made in nuclear proliferation and Bush returns to White house.

It is a GAME and they have a "Deal".